Colorado forecaster cuts Atlantic hurricane projections
|
| Published on Monday, August 6, 2007 |
Email To Friend Print Version |
By Margot Habiby
NEW YORK, USA (Bloomberg): Colorado State University forecasters have trimmed the number of major hurricanes they expect to form in the Atlantic Ocean this year to four from five forecast in May.
 |
Forecasters Philip Klotzbach (R) and
William Gray |
Scientists Philip Klotzbach and William Gray said those intense storms, with winds of at least 111 miles an hour, will be among eight total hurricanes to form, down from nine they predicted before the June 1 start of hurricane season.
The Atlantic basin has produced three named storms so far this season. None of them has become a hurricane or threatened land. Earlier this week, Tropical Storm Chantal moved up the northeast coast of the U.S. and Canada before heading back out to sea.
"We think conditions are still favorable for an active season," Klotzbach said in an interview. "We've seen a little more dry air and dust from the Sahara, and that stabilizes the atmosphere and cools the ocean temperatures."
The Colorado State scientists, whose forecasts are closely watched by meteorologists, businesses and government officials in hurricane-prone areas, said they expect 15 total named storms to form this season, down from the 17 forecast in May.
Natural gas for September delivery fell 1.6 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $6.090 per million British thermal units in trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. After the forecast was released, it traded as low as $6.031 million Btu.
Last year was the first time since 2001 and the 11th time since 1945 that no hurricane made landfall in the US. Three tropical storms did come ashore, causing at least five deaths and $500 million in damage, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.
A record 28 named storms formed in the Atlantic in 2005, including Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, which devastated the U.S. Gulf Coast. Fifteen of the named storms became hurricanes, reaching a sustained wind speed of 74 miles (119 kilometers) an hour. That surpassed the record of 12 set in 1969.
"In terms of storms so far this year, we're typically running about average," Klotzbach said.
There is a 68 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will hit the US this year and a 43 percent chance one will hit the East Coast, they said. For the Gulf Coast, the probability is 44 percent. Klotzbach and Gray cut those forecasts from May while saying they remain higher than the 20th-century average.
"Our landfall probabilities are based on what we've predicted, so if we lower our seasonal forecast, the probability goes down," Klotzbach said. "We're still well above average."
The forecasters predicted the Atlantic basin will form three named storms in August, two of them hurricanes and one of them a major hurricane. For September, they predicted five named storms, four of them hurricanes and two major hurricanes. For October, they forecast five named storms, two of them hurricanes and one of those a major hurricane.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends November 30. The peak of the season is typically between mid-August and mid- October, Klotzbach said.
The National Hurricane Center is watching two systems that could develop into more powerful Atlantic basin storms.
A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea was forecast to bring showers to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Central America over the weekend, the hurricane center said. Another system is causing cloudiness and showers over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Any development there should be "slow to occur," the center said. | | | | Reads : 275 | | | |
|
|
