Hurricane season forecast eased by storm risk group
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| Published on Friday, July 6, 2007 |
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By Theresa Barry
LONDON, England (Bloomberg): Tropical Storm Risk, a London-based group, has slightly reduced its forecast of a more intense hurricane season to about 40 percent above the norm.
TSR, comprised of forecasters and companies, had predicted June 4 that the season was likely to be 55 percent above the norm, said Mark Saunders of University College London, one of the authors of the new report. June data was included in the new outlook, according to a TSR statement.
"With this reduction, it's most unlikely that 2007 will see devastation similar to that in 2004 and 2005," said Saunders, a professor of climate prediction, in a telephone interview on Thursday.
The hurricane season stretches from June 1 to November 30.
According to an e-mailed statement, Tropical Storm Risk sees July to September trade winds over the Caribbean and North Atlantic moderately increasing the spinning of storms. Sea-surface temperatures from August to September may provide a weak increase in the heat and moisture for hurricanes, TSR said.
The average number of named tropical storms was about 10 from 1950 to 2006, TSR said. This season, the group expects about 15 named tropical storms and about 8 hurricanes, compared with a June prediction of about 16 storms and 9 hurricanes, according to its statement.
A May 22 forecast from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center showed a very high likelihood of an above-normal hurricane season, with 13 to 17 named storms and seven to 10 hurricanes.
Colorado State University researchers Philip Klotzbach and William Gray in April predicted 17 storms and nine hurricanes, including five that may reach Category 3.
The Climate Prediction Center plans to issue another forecast in August, just before the season's peak. | | | | Reads : 122 | | | |
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