Domestic challenges put brake on US-Cuba thaw
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| Published on Saturday, October 10, 2009 |
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By Jeff Franks
HAVANA, Cuba (Reuters) -- US-Cuba relations have warmed under US President Barack Obama, but domestic political and economic problems weighing on both governments are likely to slow any major progress in ending 50 years of hostility.
For both Obama and Cuban President Raul Castro, change in the relationship is fraught with uncertainties that neither wants to risk at a time when they face major challenges at home, Cuba experts said.
Some are predicting Obama will put off any significant initiatives on Cuba until and unless he wins a second term in 2012, and no longer has to worry about getting re-elected.
Obama has spoken of his desire to "recast" long-frosty US-Cuba relations, but he is wrestling with the global recession, two wars and a grinding political battle over healthcare, all in the face of fierce Republican opposition.
Raul Castro, 78, who took over the presidency of communist-ruled Cuba last year from his ailing elder brother Fidel Castro, 83, is struggling to revive and reform the Cuban economy that has been hit hard by the recession.
The younger Castro is attempting politically sensitive reforms of the socialist economy to boost productivity and ease the financial weight of expensive social benefits.
"It's a period of exploration on the part of both sides. I don't get a sense that either side is in a hurry," said Phil Peters, vice president of the Lexington Institute think tank in Arlington, Virginia.
Obama's election in 2008 raised expectations for change after eight years of escalating bitterness between the Cuban government and his predecessor, George W. Bush.
Since taking office he has removed limits on Cuban-Americans traveling and sending remittances to the island, and initiated talks on migration issues and the possible resumption of direct mail service, broken off since 1963 between the two countries just 90 miles (145 km) apart.
But he also has said the 47-year-old US trade embargo against Cuba, the main point of contention between the two countries, should stay in place until Cuba releases political prisoners and improves human rights.
His steps thus far have been welcome, but also disappointing for those who hoped for more, including the Cuban government. It blames the embargo for many of its economic woes, but also has insisted it will not negotiate with the United States on human rights.
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Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez.
AFP PHOTO |
"These measures are a positive step, but they are extremely limited and insufficient," Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez said in a Sept. 30 speech to the United Nations.
US experts say Obama's Cuba measures have been politically safe, and calculated not to anger the anti-Castro Cuban exile community in Miami as he looks toward 2012.
Although their influence has waned in recent years, Cuban-Americans opposing any unilateral rapprochement with the Castros have traditionally been a force in US politics and a bulwark of support for the Republican Party.
"You don't want to test the proposition that you don't need the Miami Cubans to win Florida. They are not what they were 10 years ago, but they are still formidable," said Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado, a political scientist at the University of Nebraska at Omaha.
Doing nothing to change the US-Cuba relationship has no political cost to Obama and avoids "the noise" of opposition that comes with doing something, he added.
Obama recently signed an annual renewal of the law that imposes the US embargo on the island and earlier this year kept Cuba on a list of terrorist countries.
On Oct. 28, the United Nations General Assembly will vote on Cuba's annual resolution calling for an end to the embargo -- the non-binding anti-embargo vote has gained overwhelming international support for successive years -- and Washington is expected to cast its increasingly isolated vote in opposition.
Washington attorney Robert Muse, a specialist in Cuba issues, said he thinks "as of now, the White House political guys have decided they are not going to do anything on Cuba because Florida will be a tight election."
"It's my thesis that Cuba policy is over for this term, and we'll be hearing 'wait until his second term, he'll be free to act then,'" he said.
That could be good news for Cuban leaders, who see both advantages and disadvantages to improving relations with the United States. While they constantly decry the embargo, they may be in no hurry to see it completely disappear, said Benjamin-Alvarado.
"I don't think the Cubans want abrupt change, I think they want a kind of phased transition. It would be too chaotic if there was an abrupt change," he said.
The end of the embargo, which would require new legislation by the US Congress, would "immediately put the onus for the Cuban economy on the Cuban government," Peters said.
There are bills currently before the US Congress that would eliminate the embargo's travel ban to Cuba for most Americans and may soon come up for a vote.
"I think the travel bill will pass the House, I'm less optimistic about the Senate, where there is a lot of opposition," said Wayne Smith, former head of the US Interests Section in Havana, now at Washington's Center for International Policy. | | | | Reads : 704 | | | |
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