UK forecasters update 2007 hurricane predictions
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| Published on Saturday, May 5, 2007 |
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By Courtney Dentch
NEW YORK, USA (Bloomberg): Two hurricanes and three tropical storms may strike the US East and Gulf coasts this year, as part of an above-average storm season, London-based Tropical Storm Risk said.
The forecasters lowered their prediction for the number of tropical storms that will form in the Atlantic Ocean during the June-to-November season to 16 from 17. They reiterated a forecast for nine hurricanes, including four major hurricanes with winds above 111 miles per hour.
"Atlantic basin and US landfalling tropical cyclone activity are forecast to be about 65 percent above the 1950-2006 norm," Mark Saunders and Adam Lea wrote in the outlook. "There is a high likelihood that activity will be in the top one-third of years historically."
Experts overestimated last year's quieter-than-expected season, when 10 tropical storms and five hurricanes took shape, below the six that typically form, based on the 50-year average.
Weather systems become named tropical storms once winds reach 39 mph. Hurricanes have winds of more than 74 mph.
Tropical Storm Risk, a group of forecasters and insurance companies, expects weaker-than-normal trade winds to cause more systems to spin into cyclones, while warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures may create stronger hurricanes.
On average, 10 tropical storms have formed annually during the 1950-2006 period, with six becoming hurricanes and three reaching major or Category 3 strength on the five-tier Saffir-Simpson Scale.
Other forecasters are also predicting a more active season.
Colorado State University researchers Philip Klotzbach and William Gray said last month they expect 17 storms, nine hurricanes, five of which will reach Category 3 force.
AccuWeather.com senior meteorologist Joe Bastardi said intense storms may pound the Gulf of Mexico, although he didn't issue a forecast for the number of systems that may form.
Energy traders closely follow the Atlantic hurricane season for signs storms may disrupt energy production in the Gulf of Mexico, which accounts for 30 percent of US oil and 21 percent of its natural gas. In 2005, hurricanes cost insurers $57.9 billion, according to a survey of claims by Insurance Services Office Inc. in Jersey City, New Jersey. | | | | Reads : 1 |
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