Caribbean Net News: Sea level rise could hit some Caribbean countries hard, says study

WASHINGTON, USA (Reuters): Even a small rise in the world's sea levels, predicted as a result of global warming, could make environmental refugees of people in some Caribbean countries, a World Bank economist said on Tuesday.

If seas rise as little as 39 inches (1 meter) this century, as forecast in some scientific models, Suriname, Guyana, French Guiana, and the Bahamas would be among the countries severely affected, said Susmita Dasgupta, author of a report on the impact of sea level rise on developing countries.

A sea level rise of 39 inches (1 meter) would turn about 56 million people in 84 developing countries into refugees, Dasgupta said.

"Knowing which countries will be most affected could allow better targeting of scarce available resources and could spur vulnerable nations to develop national adaptation plans now and avoid big losses later," Dasgupta said.

Adaptation plans include heading for higher ground and building dams to keep the water out.

She cited a February 2 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a consensus document crafted by hundreds of scientists and policy makers, which said sea levels will keep rising for centuries even if greenhouse gas concentrations - blamed for spurring global warming-- were stabilised now.

She also noted that global average sea levels rose more rapidly from 1993 to 2003 than they did from 1961 through 2003, which was faster than climate models projected. By 2100, Dasgupta said, sea levels are projected to rise 1.6 feet to 4.6 feet (0.5 meter to 1.4 meter) above 1990 levels.

Even the most extreme scenarios should be considered, she said, because of the possibility that the thick ice sheets covering Greenland and Antarctica could disintegrate as the world warms.

The loss of the Greenland ice sheet alone would raise sea level by nearly 23 feet, Dasgupta's report said.

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