Friday, January 5, 2007

by Janine Zacharia and Jeff Bliss

WASHINGTON, USA (Bloomberg): The US Coast Guard and other agencies are stepping up planning for handling a possible surge in Cubans seeking refuge in the US once communist leader Fidel Castro dies, according to officials involved in the effort.

More than 250 people from federal agencies participated in an organisational dry run of the interdiction plan known as Operation Vigilant Sentry on December 12 and 13, Coast Guard spokesman Lieutenant Commander Chris O'Neil said in an interview. A full-scale exercise is set for March.

President George W. Bush's administration is concerned that Castro's death, and possible political instability in the island nation afterward, might produce a flotilla of refugees in the waters between Cuba and Florida, as in 1980 when 125,000 Cubans overwhelmed the Coast Guard.

Anyone picked up by US authorities after leaving Cuba would most likely be sent to the American naval base at Guantanamo Bay, in eastern Cuba, which has absorbed refugees from Cuba and Haiti in the past. The base also houses suspected Islamic terrorists.

"Guantanamo Bay would be one of the locations used" if the US faces an influx of refugees, O'Neil said. US officials are also considering options including using Navy ships in the region to temporarily shelter boat people, according to O'Neil.

The US is evaluating intelligence reports on boat building in Cuba and the stability of the Cuban government to determine how much of an exodus, if any, may follow Castro's death, O'Neil said.

A US official familiar with the planning said the State and Defense departments are bickering over who should pay for the tents, food and other provisions that would be needed at Guantanamo. Neither the State nor Defense departments responded to questions about the refugee plans.

The 1,000-page operational plan dates to 2003, according to O'Neil. It has been given a fresh review since the 80-year-old Castro fell ill in July and handed control of the country to his 75-year-old brother Raul.

Bush's top advisers on December 22 met at the White House to discuss the post-Castro era, and focused on preparations for a possible wave of refugees, according to a US official familiar with the meeting.

Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte has said it is "a matter of months, not years" before the ailing Fidel Castro dies.

In a statement issued on December 31, Fidel Castro praised his countrymen for their "serenity and maturity" during the five months of his recovery from intestinal surgery and called on them to endorse the nation's communist government in 2007.

Castro said in his annual year-end message that his convalescence has been "prolonged," and he vowed to keep fighting to recover.

In the 1980 boat lift, Cubans fled to the US after Castro said anyone who wanted to leave could do so through the Cuban port of Mariel. Many of the refugees were picked up by boats sent by the Cuban community in Florida.

In 1994, 30,000 Cubans were transferred to the 45-square-mile Guantanamo naval facility after they were picked up by US ships. Most were accepted into the US on a temporary basis while their status was evaluated.

Guantanamo also was used to house Haitian refugees fleeing political upheaval that same year.

Since 1995, the Coast Guard has intercepted thousands of Cubans at sea and returned them to Cuba "while those deemed at risk for persecution have been transferred to Guantanamo and then found asylum in a third country," according to an August 8, 2006, report by the Congressional Research Service.

Cubans who reach US soil are allowed to apply for permanent resident status within one year. The US wants to avoid this happening on a massive scale and would prefer to temporarily house the refugees before sending them back to what they envision as a democratic, free Cuba, the US official familiar with planning said.

Raul Castro's succession has not led to any overt effort by US policy makers to promote democracy in Cuba.

"They regard Raul Castro as the same as Fidel Castro so in that sense there is no real change in US policy," said Peter DeShazo, a former State Department official who directs the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Guantanamo Bay became a focus of worldwide censure after 2001 because of accusations of mistreatment by US military personnel of suspected terrorists imprisoned there.

Footage of shackled detainees in outdoor cages circulated worldwide, fueling anti-American ire. Bush signed into law last year legislation authorising military tribunals for detainees accused of war crimes.

The suspected terrorists are "separate from the area where migrants would be held," O'Neil said. The refugees "are not going to be put under the same conditions." The US official familiar with planning said Guantanamo Bay's image problem has not been a subject of concern in discussions on the possible Cuban exodus.

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