Friday, December 22, 2006

by Isabel Sanchez

HAVANA, Cuba (AFP): Interim Cuba leader Raul Castro could signal a passing of the torch to a newer generation of Communist leaders when Cuba's national legislature opens its annual meeting here Friday.

Raul's role as top leader since he took over from his ailing older brother Fidel Castro on July 31 will likely be made clearer at the meeting.

But the probable absence of Fidel, unseen in public since he underwent surgery in July, will spotlight the big question about the future of Cuba and who will lead it, beyond the Castro brothers.

Raul, 75, strongly suggested during a 35-minute speech late Wednesday to the University Students' Federation (FEU) that the time had come for a changing of the guard.

"Whether we like it or not, we're already coming to the end of our duties," he said. "We have to yield to the new generations ... or continue to lead the way for the new generations, gradually of course."

Raul spoke from a table where three generations of Cuban leaders were sitting, including Jose Ramon Machado Ventura, 76, chief of the Organization Department of the Communist Party Central Committee; Vice President Carlos Lage, 55; and his 25-year-old son and FEU chairman Carlos Lage Codorniu.

After the students said in a final statement that they would "defend the martial, Marxist-Leninist, socialist and antiimperialist revolution," Raul replied that he was proud Cuba would be led "by the new generations you represent."

On what style of government they should follow, Raul, also Cuba's defense minister, recommended the leadership should always include exhaustive debate.

He offered a little insight in his own way of doing things: "I confer with a group of 12 generals of one or more stars. They all give their opinions, they all discuss, and in the end, if I don't see a true majority consensus, no conclusion is reached, unless it's an emergency."

With 609 members, the National Assembly of People's Power (ANPP) gives some hints at the future leadership. It is presided over by one of the leading figures of the regime, Ricardo Alarcon, 69, Cuba's former representative to the United Nations.

The legislature comprises now three generations of Cuban leaders, all bound together by "Fidelism" -- from the old guard who rose up behind Fidel Castro in the 1959 revolution, to the newest generation of 30-40 year-olds.

In between are rising figures like Lage; Felipe Perez Roque, 41, Cuba's top diplomat; and Francisco Soberon, 61, president of the central bank.

All were named by Fidel Castro to back his brother in the interim.

Since its creation in December 1976, the ANPP has always been Fidel Castro's venue for laying out in detail the country's direction. His long speeches dominated debates and usually led to unanimous votes backing his views.

It will be only the second time in its 30-year history that Fidel will miss a session of the ANPP.

With a more conservative, quieter style, Raul Castro will preside over the second of the two annual ANPP sessions. In December 2002, his absence was attributed to complications from a mosquito bite.

In the days ahead of the meeting, there has been no indication that he will break from the normal routine. The deputies will review, for instance, the state housing construction program and the "revolutionary" program to protect the environment, themes already discussed Monday and Tuesday by ANPP committees.

Even so, all attention will be focused on any signal about Fidel's health and Raul's future. The meeting takes place with Fidel unseen in public for more than four months and questions about the country's future looming.

"We cannot exclude the possibility that Fidel will choose this moment to make important announcements through his brother, such as laying down the formal process for a transition," said a diplomat from a friendly Latin American country.

The diplomat said Fidel Castro's "political wisdom" could inspire an announcement.

However, he cautioned, "His temperament as a fierce fighter doesn't suggest that he would announce his withdrawal from politics prematurely."

With a personal appearance generally ruled out, the country must hold its breath in wait for a surprise move.

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