Reprinted from Caribbean Net News
caribbeannetnews.com

Castro's absence to dominate national assembly meeting

Thursday, December 21, 2006

by: Patrick Lescot

HAVANA, Cuba (AFP): Raul Castro's status as Cuba's leader in the absence of his ailing brother, longtime President Fidel Castro, could become clearer as the communist Caribbean nation's legislature meets Friday.

It will be only the second time in its 30-year history that Fidel Castro will miss a session of the National Assembly of People's Power (ANPP). The meeting takes place with the veteran leader unseen in public for more than four months and questions about the country's future looming.

Since its creation in December 1976, the ANPP has always been Fidel Castro's venue for laying out in detail the country's direction. His long speeches dominated debates and usually led to unanimous votes backing his views.

But since Fidel Castro, 80, handed over power for the first time in late July, deputising his brother Raul as leader while he recuperates from intestinal surgery, the country has been in a de facto political transition, but in what direction, and under whom, remains a huge question.

With a more conservative, quieter style, Raul Castro will preside over the second of the two annual ANPP sessions.

In the days ahead of the meeting, there has been no indication that he will break from the normal routine. The deputies will review, for instance, the state housing construction program and the "revolutionary" program to protect the environment, themes already discussed Monday and Tuesday by ANPP committees.

Even so, all attention will be focused on any signal about Fidel Castro's health and Raul Castro's future.

The last time Fidel Castro missed an ANPP session, in December 2002, it was attributed to complications from a mosquito bite. But this time, even in the absence of a clear explanation, it is clearly more grave.

With facts about his health a state secret, Fidel Castro's absence at a December 2 military parade held to honor his 80th birthday stunned people and sparked a wave of speculation.

He has not been seen in public since July 26 -- just before he handed over power to his brother. And although he has since then appeared in pictures and on film from what appeared to be a hospital bed, no images have been issued since October 28.

"We cannot exclude the possibility that Fidel will choose this moment to make important announcements through his brother, such as laying down the formal process for a transition," said a diplomat from a friendly Latin American country.

The diplomat said Fidel Castro's "political wisdom" could inspire an announcement.

However, he cautioned, "His temperament as a fierce fighter doesn't suggest that he would announce his withdrawal from politics prematurely."

With a personal appearance generally ruled out, the country must hold its breath in wait for a surprise move.

With 609 members, the ANPP gives some hints at the future leadership. It is presided over by one of the leading figures of the regime, Ricardo Alarcon, 69, Cuba's former representative to the United Nations.

The legislature comprises now three generations of Cuban leaders, all bound together by "Fidelism" -- from the old guard who rose up behind Fidel Castro in the 1959 revolution, to the newest generation of 30-40 year-olds.

In between are rising figures like Carlos Lage, 54, vice president and an economic specialist; Felipe Perez Roque, 41, Cuba's top diplomat; and Francisco Soberon, 61, president of the central bank.

All were named by Fidel Castro to back his brother in the interim.

With no official news about the health of their leader of over four decades, Cubans have had to turn to statements from ally Hugo Chavez, the Venezuelan president. The official Cuban press reported last Friday Chavez's statement that he had spoken by telephone with Castro.

But Cuban media avoided mentioning statements by the 10 US legislators who visited Havana over the weekend. They told a press conference they had been assured that Castro, contrary to rumors, did not suffer from cancer and was not terminally ill.

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