Saturday, December 2, 2006

by Michael Langan

HAVANA, Cuba (AFP): Fighter jets are set to fly, workers are poised to march and all eyes will be riveted on the grandstand at a military parade for Fidel Castro's 80th birthday, after the ailing leader sat out celebrations for days.

Cubans' high yet uncertain expectations are largely focused on whether Castro will show up for a military parade Saturday, the countries first in a decade, or perhaps the close of his birthday celebrations Friday.

An appearance of any kind could shed light on whether the charismatic Comandante who led Cuba for more than four decades might ever be able to retake its helm.

If the bearded revolutionary is on hand Saturday, it likely will send the message that his recovery is under way.

But if Castro does not turn out for the parade Saturday, for Cubans it would be a sign - still stunning for many - that it is unlikely he will be back.

That would be life-altering news to Cuba's more than 11 million people, after more than 40 years with Castro at Cuba's helm. Most have known no other leader and are utterly unfamiliar with even imagining significant change.

Though Raul Castro, Cuba's defense chief, 75, has been Cuba's interim leader since his brother's intestinal surgery in July, Cuban authorities had insisted that Fidel Castro was recovering favorably.

Then they stopped saying he would return to work full time.

But their rare updates on Castro's health have left Cubans essentially in the dark, waiting for him.

"Of course (Castro) will be there Saturday. Everyone is expecting him. Do you think a president of a country is not going to show up on Armed Forces Day?" asked Alexis Moreno, 33, a public health technician.

"He is getting better," said a convinced Moreno, detailing with gusto rumors he said he heard that Castro had been out at night inspecting Revolution Square preparations.

If Castro is a no-show Saturday, he said, "It’s because he is very sick. And of course, then everyone will be really worried."

Fidel Castro Diaz-Balart, 57, the Cuban leader's eldest son and a nuclear physicist, turned out Friday for an exposition of portraits including many of his father.

Asked by reporters of his family was discouraging Castro from attending events, the bearded "Fidelito" as Castro's son is known here, said: "I would rather leave that up in the air. We all are waiting. What I can tell you is he is following all the events carefully and with great joy."

Nearly 2,000 special guests - including French film star Gerard Depardieu, Castro's favorite movie actor and a personal friend - have flown in for the events. Thursday, Depardieu said: "Yes, I have had new information. He is doing well."

Ally Bolivian President Evo Morales was in Cuba Friday, and brought Castro a birthday cake made with coca leaves, an Andean folk remedy, and the raw material from which cocaine can be made.

Franco-Spanish author and journalist Ignacio Ramonet also said the Cuban leader was "much better" and working on a third edition of the latest authorized Castro biography. The Cuban edition is called "100 Hours with Fidel."

Miguel Bonasso, an Argentine writer, lawmaker and personal friend of Castro, declined to speculate on whether the Cuban leader would attend a military parade in his honor Saturday.

"It would be rash to predict" whether Castro will show up, he said, adding that Castro "always has shown great dignity and wants to show himself fully fit." Bonasso has met with Castro twice since his July intestinal surgery.

Castro has remained absent from the belated public celebrations marking his 80th birthday, which was August 13. The almost week-long fete was delayed in the hope his recovery would be well along by now.

But he has not been seen in public since he temporarily handed the government over to his brother and defense minister Raul Castro on July 31.

And by midday Friday, Fidel Castro had taken part in none of the birthday events, just sending a note for the opening gala.

Some official media comments and graphics during the birthday celebrations have had a decidedly farewell tone. One new graphic run repeatedly ends with an ominous "Fidel is ... all of us."

Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque late Thursday told a colloquium on Castro that "Fidel, who aspires for his ideas to be what remains of him, is recovering, recuperating and will return to deliver his enemies a defeat."

"The enemies of the Cuban Revolution are counting the minutes, waiting and hoping that he dies, without understanding that Fidel no longer is Fidel.

"Now, he is the people, and he is every man and woman prepared to fight for the idea that a better world is possible," Cuba's top diplomat said.

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