But, there is no reason for complacency. 

Sir Ronald Sanders is a business executive and former Caribbean diplomat who publishes widely on small states in the global community. Reponses to: ronaldsanders29@hotmail.com

A report, commissioned by the British government, from former World Bank Chief Economist, Sir Nicholas Stern, has re-enforced the dire prospects for the world including small islands in the Caribbean and mainland countries with low-lying coasts such as Guyana and Belize.

Sir Nicholas has warned that the human consequences of failing to act to stop global warming will be serious.

The report says: “Millions will die from malnutrition, diarrhoea, malaria and dengue fever unless effective controls are in place. There will be acute risks all over the world from the Inuits in the Arctic to the inhabitants of small islands in the Caribbean and Pacific”.

Sir Nicholas is a hard-nosed Economist, not an Environmentalist.  Therefore, there is no reason for suspecting a hidden agenda in his warning that the world is in danger.

The 600 page report is quite a tome and it makes depressing reading for the future of the world if temperatures continue to rise.  Among the troubling projections are:

200 million people are at risk of being driven from their homes by flood or drought by 2050
60 million Africans could be exposed to Malaria if world temperatures rise by 2°C
4 billion people could suffer from water shortages if temperatures rise by 2°C
 
If nothing is done about global warming the world economy would shrink by up to 20 per cent, equating to a figure of almost US$2 trillion a year. Developing countries would, of course, be hardest hit with poverty increasing, disease spreading, trade worsening and hundreds of millions of people dying. 

However, Sir Nicholas points out that spending of just one per cent of GDP per year, the equivalent of roughly US$90 billion annually in an international effort could stabilise carbon emissions at 550 parts per million.

The importance of stabilising the emissions is that once carbon dioxide is emitted into the atmosphere it stays there and continues to warm the planet for as long as century.  Thus, everyday that the emissions increase global warming is intensified and prolonged. 

The report tells the Caribbean nothing new when it says that rising sea levels will pose serious risks and demand increasing coastal protection.  But, it makes the point that, in addition to small islands, coastal cities such as New York and Miami in the US, Mumbai and Calcutta in India, London in the UK and Honk Kong and Shanghai in China would also be flooded.

In the Caribbean, fish stocks would also be badly affected by Ocean acidification, a direct result of rising carbon dioxide levels.  In turn this will not only affect the livelihood of fishermen, it will also cut the food supply of people in the region. 

Dr Ulric Trotz, chief science advisor for the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Climate Change Centre, recently pointed out that, “warming of the Caribbean Sea is impacting on the coral reefs which are an important resource for livelihoods both for fishing and tourism”.

The evidence is compelling.  For instance, much of the 200 miles of Belize's coral reef has been "bleached" in the last decade and some scientists warn it is likely to die, a victim of global warming.

According to Sir Nicholas Stern’s report, a rise of 1°C would bleach 80% of coral reefs.

The Caribbean already knows very well the destructive impact of hurricanes on buildings and infrastructure.  It will get worse. Infrastructure damage will rise sharply because of the combined effects of more powerful storms from warmer ocean waters and the power of rising wind speeds.

It is being hoped that Sir Nicholas’ authoritative report will have an impact on the Bush administration in the US which withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol - an international agreement setting targets for industrialised countries to cut their greenhouse gas emissions which are considered at least partly responsible for global warming.

Similarly, it is hoped that China and India will be influenced by the report’s gloomy diagnosis. 

The US emits more than 25 percent of the greenhouses gases in the world and the projected increase in carbon dioxide emissions is attributed to the fast paced industrialisation programmes now underway in China and India. By comparison, the Caribbean countries altogether produce less than 0.1 % of greenhouse gases, and this figure is likely to increase only marginally.

There was a time when some countries pumped carbon dioxide into the atmosphere to maintain their level of development at the expense of others who suffered the backlash of hurricanes, flooding, and drought. 

Sir Nicholas’ report shows that while developing countries will continue to experience the greatest hardship, developed countries too will feel the pain.

He calls for a high-degree of international cooperation to tackle this global problem saying that the scale of the challenge makes it more urgent for developed countries to honour their existing commitments to double aid flows to developing countries by 2010. 

The report declares that “strong growth and development will enhance countries ability to adapt”.

This is an issue that should be given high priority on the agenda of international and bilateral discussions between governments.

Certainly, the governments in the islands of the Caribbean and regional countries, like Guyana and Belize, with low lying coasts should push for it to be placed in current trade, aid and investment negotiations between the European Union and African, Caribbean and Pacific countries for Economic Partnership Agreements.   

It should also be raised by Caribbean leaders with US President George Bush as early as possible and it should be a high priority of the agenda for a meeting planned with him for June 2007.

The problem is real and Sir Nicholas and his team have now itemized the economic cost.