Reprinted from Caribbean Net News
caribbeannetnews.com

Cuba: a month without Fidel at the helm but little visible change

Friday, September 1, 2006

by: Patrick Lescot

HAVANA, Cuba (AFP): In the month since an ailing Fidel Castro ceded power to his brother Raul, very little appears to have changed in communist-run Cuba but residents say an almost 48-year era has ended.

Authorities have said Castro would be back in charge as soon as he feels better, but have become less insistent on the topic as the weeks go by.

Fidel Castro himself, in one of the few statements attributed to him since July 31, said Cubans should remain optimistic but brace for possible bad news.

Analysts and a great many Cubans believe that even if he does return to office following surgery, it will be with a greatly reduced workload, and possibly only in a ceremonial position.

That would mark a major change for the bearded leader who micromanaged the country for almost five decades and regularly lectured Cubans on a wide variety of topics, ranging from alleged US threats to the proper use of a pressure cooker.

Castro stunned Cubans when he announced in a statement on July 31 that he was recovering from intestinal surgery and had temporarily handed over to Raul, his constitutionally designated successor and the Caribbean nation's defense minister.

The announcement prompted a flurry of rumors that authorities were covering up his death, and triggered street celebrations in Miami, home to a large Cuban exile population.

It also fueled speculation that Cuba might plunge into chaos as rival factions battle for the succession.

But on August 13, when Castro turned 80, state-run media ran a series of photographs showing Castro sitting in a room, on the phone or reading a newspaper.

Video footage aired the next day showed a bedridden Castro receiving his brother Raul and his close ally Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

And life generally continued as normal for Cubans and tourists alike.

One of the few visible signs of change was the stepped up presence of military troops.

Raul Castro, 75, said that immediately after his older brother's announcement, he mobilized tens of thousands of reservists and militia members to face a possible US invasion threat. But in an August 18 interview with the official Granma daily, he also offered to normalize relations with the United States on terms acceptable to Havana.

Washington ridiculed Cuban suggestions that the United States planned to invade Cuba, and responded to the call for normalization by renewing a 2002 proposal to end its 44-year-old embargo if Cuba takes steps toward democratization.

A communist party daily dismissed the US suggestion as nothing more than a "two-bit comedy show."

Whether Raul Castro might be willing to bring about some degree of reform is a subject of much debate among Cuba-watchers. Some believe he is interested in the Chinese and Vietnamese models of economic opening, while others point to his reputation as an orthodox communist hardliner.

Raul, who has remained in the shadow of his bearded brother since the 1959 revolution, has said very little over the past month.

But the Granma interview and accompanying photographs suggest he has not moved into the presidential palace and continues to work from his defense ministry office.

In July he had stressed that his older brother was "the only commander-in-chief of the Cuban revolution" and that the Cuban Communist Party was Fidel's only heir.

Analysts believe that Raul, who lacks his brother's popularity, would be likely to delegate far more than Fidel ever did.

The older Castro named six top government and party officials to assist the acting president.

Raul Castro will make his international debut at Cuba's helm when he hosts the September 11-16 summit of the Non Aligned Movement here. There is speculation that Fidel Castro, who loves the limelight, might make a surprise, if brief, appearance.

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