At time of writing, Tropical Storm Debby is moving in a west-northwest direction and is expected to continue thus until early next week. A hurricane warning is in effect for the Southeast Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the north coast of the Dominican Republic and a hurricane watch is in effect for the central Bahamas, northern Haiti and the north coast of Cuba.

Debby is now the fourth of the 21 named tropical storms "carded" for 2006, a year in which, as in 2005, the Season to be Wary has gotten off to a relatively tame start.

Last year's season surpassed the expectations of even pessimistic forecasters who base their predictions on 52 years of scientific observation. In Debby's case, we have been reassured over the past days that there is nothing to fear from this particular storm, as it is unlikely to strike land in hurricane form.

The first caveat here is that, from our island point of view, the international media's definition of "land" must often be taken with a grain of salt. Although matters have improved in recent years, in the recent past, when a storm no longer seemed to threaten Florida, hurricanes mysteriously dropped off the radar. That this has changed at all is owed more to the presence of foreign tourists on our beaches than to any other factor.

The second warning has to do with the effect that a natural disaster that fails to materialize has upon the population and its potential to reinforce the "God is a (your nationality here)" mentality that has caused so much grief in our region. The notable efforts in ACS Members to increase public awareness of the need to prepare for natural disasters can be seriously undermined when a storm that misses us becomes anecdotal evidence to support a laissez faire attitude on the part of the public.

All initiatives in our Greater Caribbean aimed at raising consciousness of disaster preparedness and mitigation are to be applauded and all campaigns, whether regional or national, need the vocal support of all sectors of society, particularly those with a known capacity to affect public opinion, such as the media and academia. Fortunately, at least in Trinidad and Tobago, ODPM[i] and the media have been proactive in warning of the dangers to life and property posed by the heavy rains riding Debby's coattails.

Experts currently rate inadequate preparedness (including education) alongside climate change, socioeconomic factors and ecological degradation as being at the core of all tragedies caused by natural disasters.

The previous assertion stems from the recognition that, whilst natural phenomena barreling through human settlements can be neither prevented nor controlled, natural disasters, (internationally defined as extreme events which result in widespread social disruption, trauma, property damage and loss of life), are a result of our societies' vulnerabilities. Dr Dave Zervaas, of the United Nations' International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, argues that preparation should focus on making people less vulnerable to disasters, as "it's much more important now to look at vulnerabilities, because you have factors you can control."

Of all our vulnerabilities, ignorance is perhaps one that as a society we are best prepared to tackle, as it requires neither astronomical funding nor (as in the case of building codes) confrontation with vested interests. The public must be made to see that disaster prevention and mitigation are year-round activities in respect not only of hurricanes, but also of the host of other phenomena that plague or region.

If the public is allowed to let down their guard because of a near-miss, then our next cry of alarm, in the case of Ernesto for example, will be met as so much mamaguy.

Luis Carpio is the Director of Transport and Natural Disasters of the Association of Caribbean States. The views expressed are not necessarily the official views of the ACS. Feedback can be sent to: mail@acs-aec.org