Saturday, August 12, 2006

by Tom Brown

MIAMI, USA (Reuters): A lot more than the treacherous Florida Straits separates Miami's Cuban exiles from their homeland just 90 miles (145 km) off the southern tip of Florida.

But the handover of power by ailing Cuban leader Fidel Castro has many thinking about change on the communist-ruled island and the day, perhaps soon, when barriers between Cubans and staunchly anti-Castro Cuban Americans may finally come tumbling down.

"In the long run it's going to be impossible to separate South Florida from Cuba, the links are too strong," said Anthony Maingot, a Caribbean expert and sociology professor at Florida International University.

"I have absolutely no doubt that Cubans will go back," said Maingot, predicting many exiles would return to Cuba to live after Castro's long rule comes to an end.

Castro, who will turn 80 on Sunday, has not been seen in public since the announcement on July 31 that he was provisionally handing power to his younger brother, Raul Castro, while he recovered from stomach surgery.

No one doubts that many of Miami's 650,000-strong Cuban exile community yearn for their lush tropical homeland. Nostalgia is especially strong among the elderly and the first wave of Cubans who fled Castro in the early 1960s.

But a 2004 poll by Florida International University showed that most exiles -- who may not be welcome back on the island -- would probably never return to Cuba to live. Even if it changed to a democracy, nearly 67 percent said they were unlikely to consider a permanent return.

That total was even higher than the 60 percent who said they favored military action, by the U.S. government or Cuban exiles, to overthrow Castro.

There are many reasons for rejecting a permanent return. But none is cited more often than the fact that most Cuban Americans now have deep roots in the United States.

Many have prospered in Miami, as Cuba fell into economic ruin, and have a history of mutual antagonism and deep distrust with those who endured in their homeland.

A FAMILY AFFAIR

Cuba and Florida could eventually have "highly integrated economies," said Javier Corrales, an associate professor of political science at Amherst College. "But a lot depends on whether Cuba becomes a hospitable place, politically and economically."

If there is a true democratic opening in Cuba, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, an exile and Republican congresswoman from South Florida, said booming tourism and new business and franchise opportunities could lure many Cuban émigrés back to stay.

She stressed that it would be a very emotional time for the exile community, however, as they take stock of "the way things used to be and the way they've been torn down by almost 50 years of a brutal dictatorship."

Touching on what may become the thorniest issue in future U.S.-Cuban affairs, Ros-Lehtinen said exiles should not hope to reclaim property confiscated during the revolution. Rather than pushing to regain land and property expropriated by the Cuban state, most exile leaders now favor demanding some sort of compensation from a democratic transition government.

"There are a lot of family decisions that will be made as soon as Cuba is free from the dictators, whether it's Fidel or Raul or communist tyranny by any other name," Ros-Lehtinen said.

Elena Freyre, a voice of moderation among Miami's often strident exiles, said Cuban Americans will play only a limited role in a post-Castro Cuba, and should not expect to be well received on the island due to their support for the U.S. economic embargo against it.

"I think the vast majority of Cuban Americans are here to stay," said Freyre, who came to Miami as a child in 1960 and now heads the Cuban-American Defense League.

"Most of the people who speak the most about how much they miss the homeland haven't been there in over 40 years and have no clue what Cuba looks like today," she said.

"The few that are bold enough to venture stepping on the actual ground (of Cuba) are going to catch the first plane back."

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