Antigua & Barbuda

Prev    Next Commentary: What is Antigua and Barbuda's agenda for the economy? Published on Monday, October 19, 2009 Email To Friend    Print Version By Dr Isaac Newton When the former Minister of Finance and the Economy, Dr Errol Cort, made the point that the global economic crisis would not have any impact on the local economy, his statement was viewed as quite shocking. Dr Isaac Newton is an international leadership and change management consultant and political adviser who specialises in government and business relations, and sustainable development projects. Dr Newton works extensively in West Africa, the Caribbean and Latin America, and is a graduate of Oakwood College, Harvard, Princeton and Columbia. He has published several books on personal development and written many articles on economics, leadership, political, social, and faith-based issues. Given his training in economics, Dr Cort was likely being unreasonably optimistic. Or perhaps he had chosen to place the people’s hope, several miles south of the interconnected reality of the global market. Dr Cort’s statement-- when measured against the harsh conditions on the ground-- began a vicious process of undermining the people’s trust, in the government’s capacity to manage the economy. Public confidence was dashed again, when former PM Lester Bird emerged, a prophetically well informed politician, after predicting that the United Progressive Party (UPP) government would have to turn to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The government’s uphill battle is not limited to widespread suspicions about the IMF’s history of superimposing unlivable conditions on poor borrowing states. The recently released stand-by arrangement with the IMF outlines severe social consequences for the nation, under the cover of “improving debt, increasing revenue, and reducing expenditure.” But depleted leadership confidence between the government and the people is at the heart of the problem. The UPP has failed to provide a rationale for going to the IMF that squares with its economic recovery plan. The biggest challenge to the government however, is to lay out a clearly defined economic agenda. Regardless of recent public announcements made by Mr Peter Wickham, a Barbadian political pollster--on Radio Observer 91.1 FM-- the government’s problems will not disappear. Conscientious voters view Mr Wickham’s statements as a timely but cute attempt, to shore up the Prime Minister, the Hon W Baldwin Spencer’s profile. Yet I congratulate the PM for giving the nation, the best possible leadership brand he could offer. But because the public’s disaffection over Spencer’s stewardship is believed to be visibly high, I could not tell the difference between Mr. Wickham’s interpretation of scientific data and government’s public relations posturing. On the surface, that difference seems superbly blurred. Yet, the government insists on being eloquently vague about the current state of the economy. This has puzzled and frustrated many citizens and residents. Some of whom have been hit hard by the ongoing global, financial disaster. In most cases, the people have lost their homes and their jobs. And as frustration rises to the sky, there is widespread belief that the nation’s fiscal troubles were made more chaotic, by the UPP’s gross mismanagement of the public’s purse. This sentiment is illustrated by two glaring projects: the unfinished car park and the ill-executed road program. By virtue of the government’s own admission, these job-creating efforts were not managed prudently. Like other neighboring countries, Antigua and Barbuda has found it difficult to meet its monthly payments, which exceed its monthly revenues. Only recently however, most Antiguans and Barbudans were made aware of the government’s chilling revenue uncertainty. Tied to that is the UPP’s incapacity to service loans, borrowed from several indigenous banks with devastating consequences on the banks’ liquidity. But Antigua and Barbuda received a favorable ranking in the Human Development Index (HDI). The nation placed in the top one hundred countries (47th). Yet over 50% of the population lives from paycheck to paycheck with no hope in sight. Just about 30% is forced to choose between silent suffering and private fear of being out of a job in the blink of an eye. 10% live above average and the other 10% dominate the economy. These are rough estimates. It is not surprising that the nation’s social pulse is less than stable. Unfortunately, several persons trained in the field of economics have shared that they only have a murky idea of the relevance of the government’s proposed National Economic and Social Transformation (NEST) plan. For example, the recent TV program—“Eyes on the Nest,” launched by the minister of finance and the economy, Harold Lovell, was supposed to have explained the structure, logic and message of the government’s economic agenda. But early signs suggest that that TV program seems headed for presenting selected facts than detailing a confidence-building framework that free the people from feelings of financial captivity. But the government has held several public forums and has made many announcements about its economic recovery plan. Still it has not succeeded in moving beyond sheer rhetoric to invaluable results. Unmanaged, the people’s perception that the government has a performance and effective communications crisis on its hand, could end up working against the UPP’s desire to inspire public confidence. This disconnect could create an appearance of hodgepodge fumbling, especially since the government’s leadership body language, neither inspires hope nor fosters public goodwill. With so many incidences of misfortune multiplying on a daily basis, it is clear that Lovell has the right motivation but wrong background, to begin to make sense of key features of the UPP’s economic plan. To optimize the government’s image, Lovell has to clarify, whether the NEST plan identifies the root causes of the government’s fiscal calamities. Or whether it contains a number of practical solutions, geared to address Antigua and Barbuda’s sustainable recovery pathway. He has to ignite the public’s interest, to convince local and foreign investors, to encourage entrepreneurial action, and to add value to families who are suffering from a unique blend of home grown negligence and the global financial recession. I suspect the act of moving beyond nightmare to dream will be a daunting task for Lovell. But to implement an effective economic agenda, perhaps Lovell should surround himself with the right mix of professionals who are intelligently tuned to innovative but indigenous models of economic recovery. He will have to ask difficult questions, designed to clarify the government’s recovery plan: How will borrowing from the IMF, mitigate or lubricate the government’s financial status? Will the NEST create new jobs for the jobless? In what specific ways is the NEST engaging local and Diasporas human resource, to generate ideas that will transform the country? How is the NEST plan working with the private sector, to establish a powerful, partnership to vibrate the economy? What financial tools are being used to prepare a swift but sustainable response to the nation’s financial crisis? What social safety nets are in place for families who have lost their jobs? How long will such assistance last? Which sector is the NEST giving priority to-- agriculture, tourism, education, health, etc-- and how will that enable economic growth and productivity? How is the NEST plan restructuring the government’s perceived negative attitude towards foreign investors? What attractive but competitive incentives are being given to companies that are most innovative about job creation? Does the NEST seek to protect unions to resist conditions that are disempowering for the working class? Does the NEST promote values of collective responsibility and commitment to expectations of excellence, in making sure that standards of living meet the objectives of the government’s recovery aims? Is the NEST designed to increase special incentives to develop an alternative energy sector? How is the NEST helping the government access relevant financing to fund its aid package? Has the NEST established a model for renegotiating the nation’s internal and external debt? What is the real total debt of the government? Will the NEST renew Antigua and Barbuda’s leadership in the Organization Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) sub-region? Unless the UPP has given up completely on its slim but increasingly fragile mandate to lead, Lovell should be hunting, searching and seeking for the best ideas to prevent financial implosion. But Lovell will have to escape a serious psychological hurdle. This is a cultist tendency to be obsessed with the arrears of the former Antigua Labour Party (ALP) administration-- during its time at the helm-- and begin to manage the economy masterfully. This means talking less about what the ALP did or did not do, and proving that what the UPP is doing, is infinitely better than the competition. To make the nation stronger than it was before, Lovell must enlist all hands. Will he be brave enough to incorporate fiscal growth recommendations that the (ALP) opposition is soon to put forth? If Lovell is planning not to fail in real time, he must also re-direct the nation’s dramatized frustrations, expressed in two recent ‘White Marches,’ into re-energized passions to support his recovery endeavors. But Lovell does not have any time left to familiarize himself with the scope of his job. He must rapidly excel at mastering finance, the economy, and public administration portfolio. To display his competence, Lovell must implement a clear agenda for resuscitating the nation’s dying economy. The survival of Antigua and Barbuda depends on Lovell’s success, but he is showing little progress in weathering this type of market depression. Ultimately then, we must hope that the Spencer-led administration will do everything to create new economic growth.   Reads : 841   Prev    Next

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