It’s storm tracking time again as Pacific system eyes Caribbean

Tropical Storm Adrian 5-day forecast track. NOAA image

NOAA water vapour image with Tropical Storm Adrian
visible at bottom left

Thursday, May 19, 2005

MIAMI, USA: Two weeks before the start of the official 2005 hurricane season, it seems that Mother Nature is no respecter of man-made calendars as Tropical Storm Adrian, which formed in the Pacific on Tuesday, moves on an unusual track, taking it across Central America and into the northwest Caribbean.

Normally systems in the eastern Pacific are of no concern to the Caribbean, but this one is unusual because Pacific storms generally move west-northwest, according to hurricane specialist Richard Pasch at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Whist this is unwelcome news, especially for the Cayman Islands, which are directly in the path of Adrian’s forecast track and which are still trying to the recover from the devastation wrought by Hurricane Ivan last September, Pasch said that it is unlikely the storm will survive strong upper-level winds and the mountains of Central America.

Tropical Storm Adrian will retain that name if it arrives in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico -- even though the first tropical storm of the Atlantic season is supposed to be Arlene.

According to the National Hurricane Center advisory at 7:00 am EDT on Wednesday, Adrian is becoming a little better organized and could bring torrential rains to Central America.

The government of El Salvador has issued a tropical storm watch for the entire coast of El Salvador and the government of Guatemala has issued a tropical storm watch for the Pacific coast of Guatemala.

Interests in Central America should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The center of Tropical Storm Adrian was located about 385 miles west-southwest of the coast of El Salvador and is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph. This general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On this track, outer rainbands may begin to affect the coastal areas of Guatemala and El Salvador later Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph, with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches, with isolated higher amounts of near 20 inches in the mountains, can be expected near the path of Adrian. This system has the potential to produce torrential rainfall over other portions of Central America during the next few days.

According to Forecaster Avila at the NHC, Adrian’s overall pattern is gradually becoming better organized and gradual strengthening is forecast. There is a chance that Adrian could reach hurricane strength before landfall.

Adrian is moving toward the northeast at 6 knots and is embedded within a southwesterly flow associated with a broad mid-level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. This pattern is forecast to persist for the next several days. Adrian should then continue on the same general track with a gradual increase in forward speed, bringing a weakened Adrian across the western Caribbean Sea, central Cuba and the Bahamas.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

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