WEATHER UPDATE
Category five Hurricane Ivan heading for Grand Cayman
Hurricane Ivan: NOAA Visible Image
Hurricane Ivan: NHC 3-day Forecast Track
Saturday, September 11, 2004
MIAMI, USA: According to the National
Hurricane Center in Miami, at 11 pm Saturday the well-defined eye of Hurricane
Ivan was located near latitude 18.3 north, longitude 80.0 west or about 105
miles southeast of Grand Cayman.
Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest
near 8 mph and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24
hours. This would bring the center near or over the Cayman Islands on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph,
with higher gusts. Ivan is an extremely dangerous category five hurricane.
Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 24 hours. Hurricane
force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center and tropical storm
force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.
A hurricane warning remains in effect for
the Cayman Islands. A hurricane warning remains in effect for Cuba from Pinar
Del Rio to Ciego de Avila including the Isle of Youth. A hurricane warning
means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within
the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion. A hurricane watch remains in effect for the rest of Cuba. A
hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours.
The government of Jamaica has changed the
hurricane warning to a tropical storm warning for Jamaica. Interests in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea, as well as in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, should
closely monitor the progress of this extremely dangerous hurricane.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 20 to 25
feet, locally higher, above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous
battering waves, can be expected near and to the east of where the center
makes landfall in Cuba. Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches, possibly causing
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, can be expected along the path
of Ivan.
The hurricane has deepened a little more
this evening and the last central pressure observation, by dropsonde from the
hurricane hunters, was 910 mb. Ivan ranks sixth for lowest Atlantic basin
central pressure behind Camille in 1969 and Mitch in 1998 at 905 mb each,
Allen in 1980 at 899 mb, the 1935 Labor Day hurricane at 892 mb, and Gilbert
in 1988 at 888 mb.
Both the atmospheric and oceanic
environments are expected to remain favorable for the next day or so and Ivan
could strengthen even more. Ivan is likely to have a devastating impact over
portions of the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by
your local weather office.
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