Hurricane Awareness Week: Part 4 – Forecast Procedures
Friday, May 21, 2004
MIAMI, USA: This week is Hurricane Awareness
Week and, in conjunction with GIS Caribbean and the National Hurricane Center
in Miami, we will be passing on valuable information about hurricanes and
tropical storms. Today’s topic: Forecast Procedures.
Part of the mission of the National Weather
Service (NWS) Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) is to save lives and protect
property by issuing watches, warnings, forecasts, and analyses of hazardous
weather conditions in the tropics. This section provides information about the
roles of those responsible for providing hurricane information to emergency
managers and decision makers. The TPC is
comprised of the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the Tropical Analysis and
Forecast Branch (TAFB), and the Technical Support Branch (TSB). During
hurricane season, the latter two provide support to the NHC.
The local NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) in hurricane-prone areas are
also important participants in the forecast process.
The NHC and your local WFO have various roles in the forecast process that are
closely coordinated. Their activities are summarized below.
Observation
Observations including satellites, buoys, reconnaissance aircraft, and radar
are the basis for all forecast and warning products issued by the NHC.
Quality, quantity, and timeliness of remote sensing observations are critical
for accurate and timely forecasts and warnings.
Analysis
The various observations are checked for quality, analyzed, and put into a
suite of computer models.
Model Guidance and Interpretation
The computer models take in the observations and perform millions of
calculations to generate predictions of hurricane behavior and the general
conditions of the atmosphere in which the hurricane is embedded. The model
results are packaged as guidance for the appropriate national centers and
local offices and for evaluation and use in the NWS's forecast and warning
process.
Coordination within the NWS
Forecasts and warnings are coordinated between the national centers and local
forecast offices to provide consistency, which is critical during severe
weather episodes.
Product Generation
Once the coordination and collaboration process reaches group consensus, the
issuing offices generate forecast and warning products for release to the
public.
Product Dissemination
Timely and reliable dissemination of forecasts and warnings is critical to the
protection of life and property. The types of products issued are described on
the Forecast Products page.
Coordination with Customers
The NHC and the local NWS forecast office work with your community leaders to
determine whether the forecast and warning products issued were useful and how
they can provide you even better service in the future.
Back...
Most popular
articles: viewed, printed and e-mailed
Printable
version
| 
